Variance

    
      
      

    What sample size is good to say what your win rate is? 50k is decent, 100k is good, 200k can really show your win rate. What about  500k? More you have, more you can say about your win rate. I lost my database in something like 7-8 month ago. Today I looked up what is going on after that. And what do you think? I saw a magical number 666k. Unfortunately it is not my winnings. It is sample size of my hand history in PokerStars. But I run like a shit in this period. I am more than 70 buy ins below EV and I don’t win anything in this period.

     

    I hate my winnings curve. But I don’t like my EV curve either. It shows only 1.05bb/100 (if my calculations correct) win rate. It is not nearly what I would like to have, but I could understand that. I am not a robot and I am tilting sometimes when I am loosing. And I was loosing a lot in this period.

    It is so hard to play when I just can’t win. But what can I do? Variance is crucial. I just can play my best game and hope that bright day will come and I will start winning again.



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    2012-08-16 at 23:56

    That is one sick bad run.  Stay the course and you'll be winning soon enough.  Good luck with the grind.